President Hillary Clinton’s first two years in office will offer her a limited window of action on the agenda promised in her campaign.
Based on current polls, the Senate has a good probability of flipping into Democratic leadership. Clinton may be able to clear the backlog of Federal judgeships and get one or two Supreme Court justices confirmed. The utter failure of Trump at the polls combined with Mitch McConnell’s position that the next President should decide will be a lash at the backs of the GOP Senate to abandon the obstruction game they have played with both Obama and the previous President Clinton.
The election’s effect on the House is less clear. The combination of self-selection and gerrymandering has been to create safe House seats for the GOP that are occupied by the faction of the House Freedom Caucus. If the election is an embarrassing blowout but not a total landslide, Paul Ryan will remain Speaker. However, his caucus will have shifted further into the pugnacious, bomb-throwing corner as it is most likely the moderate Republicans that will be swept out of office.
The result will be no movement on Clinton’s legislative agenda – college tuition, single payer, none of it. Any action at all on these items will require Democratic control of the House, which in turn will require a yuuuge, very classy win. It just might happen, after all we haven’t had the debates yet. But I’m thinking it will be a bridge too far.
And then the reaction
The 2018 midterms will roll back these gains for the Democrats in both House and Senate. The Senate seats up for election threaten more Democrats than Republicans. What isn’t clear is if Trump will still be dragging down the GOP two years after his loss. My guess is yes, and the Senate will retain a thin Democratic majority throughout President Clinton’s (first) term.
The House may see the effects of a few redrawn districts in 2018, so the classic mid-term reaction against the President’s party may be muted. (Looking at you, North Carolina.) It will also be interesting to see if the GOP establishment will be able to pick off a few more Freedom Caucus members, as they did with Tim Huelskamp this year. In any case, no movement on Clinton’s agenda.
This outlook gives Clinton’s term the same shape as Obama’s first term, with Trump’s campaign playing the role of the Iraq War and the financial crisis in terms of creating a space for Clinton to achieve something. GOP leadership can choose to continue the oh so successful obstructionism, and the result will be the expansion of executive power. I rate bipartisanship possible but unlikely.
PS – I would like to thank Donald J Trump for making it possible to write the phrase “President Hillary Clinton” this early in the process. I am bigly grateful.